World cereal production is about
1.8 billion tons, and it is possible to feed a world
population of up to7 billion. Though the present world
population is 6 billion, it has been predicted to become 10
billion in 50years. Therefore, the greatest problem of
mankind in the 21st century will be how to ensure food for
the increasing world population. At the same time, global
environmental changes are also having serious effects upon
the productivity of agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
The critical issues are that it is not possible to expand
arable land or expect more production from existing farmland.
The prospects are darkening for further improvement in food
production from agricultural resources because of
deforestation, overgrazing of grassland, overfishing, soil
erosion and desertification. Depletion and pollution have
also severely worsened the water resources in many regions of
the world. Also, severe competition will be anticipated in
the future for the utilization of water resources among
agricultural, industrial and urban sectors.
In addition, agricultural activity itself can be a very
serious problem for mankind as food production increasingly
restricts the environment. For example, gases and chemicals
derived from agricultural activity can increase global
warming, ozone layer destruction and groundwater pollution.
The persistent agricultural chemicals contaminate nature, and
they accumulate in the human body tissue through the food
chain. As a result, scientists and the public worry about
aberrant sexual development, or behavioral and reproductive
problems.
In the meantime, the international agricultural economy has
also rapidly changed. The Uruguay Round-Agriculture Mutual
Agreement in 1993 further promoted the liberalization of
agricultural trade, after which the economic context for
agriculture in Japan has become move severe. The WTO, formed
in 1995, now decides the framework of world trade after the
Uruguay Round. The OECD is discussing the fundamental
framework for international trade in agricultural products
prior to the negotiation in the WTO. The "Environmental
Indicators for Agriculture" being discussed in the OECD
have affirmatively evaluated the multifunctionality of
agricultural activities.
At the same time, international interest in environmental
problems is heightening. Following the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (the Earth Summit,
1992), international movements concerning environmental
problems become active. As a result, the international
community has negotiated and implemented many international
treaties dealing with global environmental problems, such as
global warming, ozone layer destruction, desertification and
biodiversity. The treaties recognized that agriculture could
play an important role in maintaining and conserving the
environment. The Government of Japan is also interested in
the effects of global environment changes on the future food
production in our country and the world. It is very difficult
for the human community to supply the food sufficient to feed
a world population of over 6 billion, and to promote
sustainable agriculture. The world has reached this age
without considering all the important conflicting issues of
agricultural production.
On the other hand, the New Basic Law on Food, Agriculture and
Rural Areas has been instituted in our country. The new law
mentions new policies emphasizing the importance of
sustainable agriculture, as well as the search for solutions
to agricultural environmental problems, such as environmental
conservation and the maximization of multifunctionality.
Further, the law recognizes new problems, such as the safety
of dioxins, endocrine disrupting chemicals and genetically
engineered organisms in the agro-environment. In addition,
the new discharge rules for nitrates and other chemicals from
agricultural land into nature will be instituted.
In future, further strengthening of environmental
technologies to manage agricultural environments will be
required in our institute. I hope that this annual report
will stimulate discussion and collaboration among scientists
and institutes who are concerned about agro-environmental
issues.
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Katsuyuki Minami Director General |
