農業環境技術研究所

最終更新日: 2013年2月21日

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農業環境技術研究所
セミナー開催記録
2月12日(火曜日) 第530回気象談話会
2月14日(木曜日) 第7回生物多様性研究領域セミナー
2月26日(火曜日) 平成24年度 物質循環研究領域セミナー(第4回)
2月28日(木曜日) 第531回気象談話会

第530回気象談話会

日時: 平成25年2月12日(火曜日)
13:30~15:00
場所: 農業環境技術研究所5F 547会議室
テーマ 講演者 連絡先
Global dimming and brightening and evaporation in Israel Dr. Shabtai Cohen
(Head, Dept of Environmental Physics and Irrigation Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Sciences ARO Volcani Center)
福岡
電話 838-8205
要旨

Significant decreasing multi-decadal trends in global radiation measured at the earth’s surface, starting in the late 1950’s, were reported near the end of the 20th century (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001). Many of these decreasing trends, called “global dimming”, were in excess of 1% per decade, and they were viewed with considerable skepticism by the scientific community. Beginning in the 1990’s a partial recovery in global radiation has been observed in many places in the world (Wild et al., 2005). The changes in global radiation were most likely caused by atmospheric pollution and especially sulfate aerosols which influence cloudiness and cloud properties.

During the same period evaporation rates were also found to decrease (Peterson et al., 1995). Those decreases were similar in magnitude to that of the dimming (Roderick and Farquhar, 2002). However, there has been some debate on the significance of changes in evaporation, because changes in regional and local evaporation rates can sometimes be in opposite directions (Brutsaert and Parlange, 1998). The latter is predicted by the Bouchet (1963) hypothesis.

As our climate changes, a major concern in arid regions is whether the intensity of the hydrological cycle is increasing (spinning up) or decreasing (spinning down). A decreasing hydrological cycle can lead to reductions in rainfall, increasing aridity and droughts.

Analysis of evaporation measurements made between 1964 and 1998 at Bet Dagan in Israel’s central coastal plain showed a small but statistically significant increase in screened Class A pan evaporation, mainly in the dry, summer half of the year (Cohen, Ianetz and Stanhill, 2002). No changes were found in the total open water evaporation or reference crop evapotranspiraton estimated with Penman’s combined heat balance and aerodynamic equation because the decreases found in the radiation balance term were offset by increases in the aerodynamic term. The climatic changes responsible for these opposing trends were, respectively, decreases in global irradiance and increases in water vapor pressure deficit and wind speed, the latter associated with changes in wind direction. Increases in windspeed were found to be concentrated in afternoon hours of summer and fall months, while those of vapour pressure deficit were in the late afternoon of fall months. Normalized pan evaporation for dry months showed no significant time trend, but a significant increase was found for wet months. These results support the view that the widespread reductions in potential evaporation that have been reported, although not found at Bet Dagan, were caused by global dimming rather than an increase in the rate of atmospheric moisture cycling due to global warming. The trends should have a negative effect on water supply and demand (Moeller and Stanhill, 2007).

These developments will be presented and discussed in the lecture.

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第7回生物多様性研究領域セミナー

日時: 平成25年2月14日(木曜日)
15:30~16:30
場所: 農業環境技術研究所5F 547会議室
テーマ 講演者 連絡先
個体群動態モデルを用いた耕作放棄地における植生遷移の解析 池田浩明
(農業環境技術研究所、生物多様性研究領域)
鈴木
電話 838-8245

加茂
電話 838-8246
要旨

近年、さまざまな社会経済的要因によって、耕作放棄地が拡大している。しかし、耕作放棄が農業生態系における生物多様性に及ぼす影響は未だ十分には解明されていない。また、増加した耕作放棄地をどのように利用していくべきかという問題も重要性を増している。これらに答えるためには、耕作放棄地における植生遷移をモデル化し、植物種の個体群動態に基づいて管理方法を提言することが有効であると考えられる。そこで、二次遷移草本期初期相の植物としてタコノアシを、後期相の植物としてセイタカアワダチソウを対象として個体群動態モデルを構築し、その利用を試みた結果について報告する。

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平成24年度 物質循環研究領域セミナー(第4回)

日時: 平成25年2月26日(火曜日)
15:00~
場所: 農環研本館4階 453会議室
http://www.naro.affrc.go.jp/archive/niaes/outline/map.html

テーマ 講演者 連絡先
Use of Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectrometry to Characterize Soil Organic Matter Tsutomu Ohno
和穎
電話 838-8327
要旨

http://ees.umaine.edu/run.php?pg=User&user_id=207

テーマ 講演者 連絡先
Molecular Characterization of Organic Phosphorus Fractions in Highly Weathered Soils from Southern Brazil Sue Erich
和穎
電話 838-8327
要旨

http://ees.umaine.edu/run.php?pg=User&user_id=180

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第531回気象談話会

日時: 平成25年2月28日(木曜日)
13:30~
場所: 農環研本館5F、547会議室

テーマ 講演者 連絡先
Characterizing the reliability of global crop prediction based on seasonal climate forecast IIZUMI Toshichika
福 岡
電話 838-8211
要旨

Reliable crop prediction, based on seasonal climate forecast, is attributed to the strong climate-crop relationship and reliable forecast on climatic constraints of crops. Here we present the global assessments of the climatic constraints of crops, degree of climate-crop relationship, and reliability of seasonal forecast on the climatic constraints, based on the statistical crop models and ensemble seasonal climate forecasts. Maize, soybean, rice, and wheat are taken as the examples. We then classified the reliability of the within-season crop prediction into four categories in accordance with two aspects, i.e., the degree of climate-crop relationship and the reliability of climate forecast: (I) reliable; (II) less reliable due to low reliability of climate forecast; (IV) less reliable due to weak climate-crop relationship; and (III) little reliable due to both low reliability of climate forecast and weak climate-crop relationship. Results show that the strong climate-crop relationship appeared in the area that produces 24-38% of the global crop production. On a global scale, 51-59% of the maize and soybean production is sensitive to the soil moisture level during the reproductive growth period, while 47-53% of the rice and wheat production is sensitive to the temperature. Due to higher reliability of the temperature forecasts than others, the area where the crop yield is temperature-sensitive and the temperature forecasts are reliable is certainly a nest of reliable crop prediction. The categorized reliability of crop prediction indicates that improvements of soil-moisture forecast in 30-50oN for July-October and in 30-40oS for February-April were needed for better maize and soybean prediction. Improved temperature forecasts in 20-60oN for March-August are keys for rice and wheat prediction. This study establishes the novel assessments on the reliability of crop prediction that, ultimately enable us to predict the impacts of climate extremes on the food access of people to global commodity markets.

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