国際ワークショップ:
「地球温暖化に伴う東アジアの食料生産変動予測」の開催

 
 
 20世紀後半から、人間活動に由来した環境変動が世界各地で顕在化しており、これが世界の食料生産に大きな影響を与えることか懸念されている。世界の人口の3分の1にあたる約20億の人々が生活する東アジアの食料生産もまたこの環境変動にさらされているが、この地域の食料生産の変動は今世紀の世界食料安全保障にとって最も重要な問題の一つである。
 
本ワークショップでは、この東アジア地域に焦点をあて、環境変化を予測するという視点から、食料生産の変動に関する最新の研究成果をもちより議論を行う。主な話題として、穀物生産に影響を及ぼす水資源、害虫および土壌など自然環境要因や、社会経済学的モデルを用いた食料需給モデルを取り上げ、環境変動条件下における食料生産量変動予測に関する手法の開発に役立てる。
 
 基調講演には、海外から、LIN, Erda (Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China)、PORTER, John R. (The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Denmark)、ROSEGRANT, Mark W. (International Food Policy Institute, USA) の各氏を招き、それぞれ、環境変化が農業資源に及ぼす影響の予測、環境変化に対する作物モニタリングとモデリング、食料生産システムへの影響評価について講演していただく。このほか、一般講演題数は17題でこのうち9題について海外からの発表が行われる予定である。
 

期  間 2004年3月17日(水)、18日(木)
場  所 文部科学省研究交流センター(つくば市竹園 2-20-5
主  催 独立行政法人 農業環境技術研究所

 
 
 Program 
March 17th, Wednesday
 10:00
  Opening Session
  MINAMI, Katsuyuki, President, NIAES: Welcome Address (10)
  TORITANI, Hitoshi, NIAES: Opening Address (20)
 10:30

 
LIN, Erda Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China): Keynote (30)

 
PORTER, John R. (The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Denmark): Keynote (30)

 
ROSEGRANT, Mark W. International Food Policy Institute, USA): Keynote (30)
 
Lunch
 
 13:30
  Session 1 Projection of Environmental Changes and Agricultural Resources
    Chaired by TORITANI, Hitoshi (NIAES)
NISHIMORI, Motoki NIAES):

 

 
Estimation of future regional-scale climate change over east Asia by using statistical downscaling method (20)

 
XU, Yinlong Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China):

 

 
Setting up PRECIS over China to develop regional SRES climate change scenarios (20)
  ISHIGOOKA, Yasushi NIAES):

 

 
Assessment of agro-water resources in East Eurasia by using continental scale water circulation model (20)
  YAMAMURA, Kohji (NIAES):
    Influence of global warming on the abundance of insect pests (20)
 
Tea Break
 15:10

 
HUANG, Yao Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Nanjing Agricultural University, China):

 

 
Simulation and prediction of SOC dynamics in Jiangsu Province based on model and GIS (20)
  SHIRATO, Yasuhito NIAES):


 


 
Testing the RothC model against long-term experiments on Chinese arable soils -For estimating the effects of global warming on SOC dynamics in east Asia- (20)

 
SHI, Xuezheng Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China):

 

 
A Base for researching environment change and food security in China. - Introduction to 1:1,000,000 soil database of China - (20)
  General Discussion
 

 
March 18th, Thursday
 9:00
  Session 2 Predicting and Monitoring Crop Responses to Environmental Changes
    Chaired by HASEGAWA, Toshihiro (NIAES) (20)
  KOBAYASHI, Kazuhiko (University of Tokyo):

 

 
Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 on productivity and water use of irrigated rice (20)

 
YU, Guirui Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China:
    Adaptability of plant photosynthesis under environmental change (20)

 
FU, Yuling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China):

 

 
Environmental controls on the photosynthetic productivity of shrubland and cropland in China (20)
 
Tea Break
 10:20
  SHIN Jin-Chul (National Crop Experiment Station, RDA, Korea):
    Sensitivity of rice production to the climate change (20)
  SHIBAYAMA, Michio NIAES):

 

 
Optical remote sensing for cropland discrimination through multi-temporal and multi-sensor observations (20)
  General Discussion
 
Lunch
 
 13:00
  Session 3 Assessing the Impact on Food Production Systems:
    Chaired by Dr. OHONO, Hiroyuki (NIAES)

 
LEE, Jeong-Taek National Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology, RDA, Korea):

 

 
Rice growth and production variation under abnormal climatic condition in Korea (20)

 
YAO, Fengmei Agrometeorology Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China):

 

 
Assessing the impacts of human-induced climate change on Chinese agriculture under regional SRES scenarios (20)
  OKAMOTO, Katsuo NIAES):
    Impacts of environmental change to food production in Asia (20)

 
YANG, Xiu Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China):
    The impacts of climate change on China's future food safety (20)
  FURUYA, Jun (JIRCAS):

 

 
The impacts of climate change on the world food market: Mid-term analysis by using IFPSIM (20)
 
Tea Break
 15:00
  Closing Address: HAYASHI, Yousay (NIAES)
 

 
March 19th, Friday

 
Excursion (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Meteorological Research Institute and Mt. Tsukuba)
 

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