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Prediction of Rice Production Variation in East and Southeast Asia under Global Warming

Background and Objectives:

Strong current concerns exist about the effects of global warming and land modification on food production, particularly rice production in East and Southeast Asia, as well as the supply and demand of food in Japan in the future.In this international workshop, on the basis of the results of a research project entitled gTechnological developments for prediction of food production change caused by global environmental changesh completed in FY 2005, we discuss the above-mentioned issues from the following viewpoints: climate change scenarios; water resources and soil environments under global warming conditions; factors of rice growth inhibition such as damage caused by insects; physiological effects due to carbon dioxide production and its effect on the social and economic fields.

Furthermore, to effectively apply the framework of ginternational cooperationh developed in this research project to a current research project started in FY 2006 entitled, gModeling rice-based agro-ecosystem responses to climate change and risk assessment of rice productionh, we discuss the system of international cooperation and its significance, concrete means of coordination and cooperation, and cooperation methods. We also provide material for discussion to form a consortium for agricultural environmental research in Monsoon Asia currently promoted by the National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences.

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Tentative Program:

December 13 (Wednesday)

Opening Session
W3 - 0 09:00 - 09:30 Background and Objectives of the Workshop
Hitoshi Toritani, NIAES, Japan
Session 1: Monitoring and prediction of the change in agro-environment
W3 - 1 09:30 - 09:55 1. Current Estimation and Future Projection of Climate Extremes and Unusual Weathers over the Asian Region simulated by a Regional Climate Model
Motoki Nishimori, NIAES, Japan
W3 - 2 09:55 - 10:20 2. Developing High-resolution Climate Scenarios in China
Xu Yinlong, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
10:20 - 10:45 Coffee Break
W3 - 3 10:45 - 11:10 3. Assessment of Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Agro-Water Resources in East Eurasia
Yasushi Ishigooka, NIAES, Japan
W3 - 4 11:10 - 11:35 4. Water Resources Management in The Mekong Basin: Modelling and Evaluation of Floods, Droughts and Salinity Intrusion
Toan To Quang, Southern Institute for Water Resources Research, Vietnam
W3 - 5 11:35 - 12:00 5. Agro-Environmental and Farmersf Management Strategies in Northeast Thailand
Anan Polthanee, Khon Kaen University, Thailand
12:00 - 12:30 Discussion
12:30 - 14:00 Lunch
Session 2: Response to the change in agro-environment
W3 - 6 14:00 - 14:25 6. Recent Trends in Cool Weather Damage to Rice
Eiji Kanda, NARO, Japan
W3 - 7 14:25 - 14:50 7. Effect of high temperature on yield and grain quality in rice
Motohiko Kondo, NARO, Japan
W3 - 8 14:50 - 15:15 8. Rice production damage in Thailand
Pisarn Konghakote, Khon Kaen Plant Material and Technical Service Center, Thailand
15:15 - 15:35 Coffee Break
W3 - 9 15:35 - 16:00 9. Prediction of impacts of elevated CO2 concentrationon rice productivity and water use
Hidemitsu Sakai, NIAES, Japan
W3 - 10 16:00 - 16:25 10. Yield and quality responses of rice to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and nitrogen supply
Yang Lianxin, Yangzhou University, China
16:25 - 17:00 Discussion

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December 14 (Thursday)

Session 3 : Modelling and prediction of the change in agro-environment
W3 - 11 09:30 - 09:55 Detection of cropland and crop phenology by frequently observing satellite data
Hiroyuki Ohno, NIAES, Japan
W3 - 12 09:55 - 10:20 Analysis of 50-year dynamics of insect pest populations for predicting their abundance under global warming
Koji Yamamura, NIAES, Japan
10:20 - 10:40 Coffee Break
W3 - 13 10:40 - 11:05 Potential Effect of Climate Change on Rice Production in Eastern Asia
Katsuo Okamoto, NIAES, Japan
W3 - 14 11:05 - 11:30 Impacts of Global Warming on Agricultural Product Market: World Food Model Analysis using HadCM3 Scenario A2
Jun Furuya, JIRCAS,Japan
11:30 - 12:00 Discussion
12:00 - 13:30 Lunch
Session 4 : Framework of ginternational cooperationh applied in the research on rice production variation of East and South-eastern Asia
13:30 - 13:40 1. Session address
Hitoshi Toritani, NIAES, Japan
13:40 - 14:30 2. Reports from participating organizations in the project
14:30 - 15:00 3. General Discussion
Commentator : Yousay Hayashi, University of Tsukuba, Japan / Kazuhiko Kobayashi, The
University of Tokyo, Japan

For further information about research, please contact :
Hitoshi Toritani
Agro-MeteorologyDivision
National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences
Tel: 029-838-8202
Fax: 029-838-8199
Email: toritani@affrc.go.jp

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