最終更新日: 2015年10月5日 |
9月の公開セミナー |
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公開セミナー開催予定 | ||
公開セミナー開催記録 | ||
9月17日(木曜日)第557回気象談話会 | ||
9月17日(木曜日)生物多様性研究領域セミナー(第2回) | ||
9月30日(水曜日)物質循環セミナースペシャル |
第557回気象談話会 |
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Date: Thursday, 17 September, 2015 14:30-16:30: General presentations 16:30-17:30: Presentation by a guest speaker Venue: Room No. 453 (NOT 547 this time), NIAES |
テーマ | 講演者 | 連絡先 |
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"Construction of the agro-disaster database (GAD) with EM-DAT, FAOSTAT and WFDEI | Wonsik Kim |
伊川 hirokiikawa@affrc.go.jp |
要旨 | ||
The grid agro-disaster database (GAD) is significant to investigate sustainability and predictability of the global crop production under global climate change. Nevertheless, most of the database of global agro-disasters is composed of the country base. So we construct GAD with EM-DAT (http://www.emdat.be) as global disaster dataset, FAOSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org) as global crop production dataset, and WFDEI (http://www.eu-watch.org) as global meteorological reanalysis dataset. Target crops are wheat, rice, maize and soybean, and target disasters are the extreme as a meteorological event, the flood as a hydrological event, and the drought as a climatological event based on EM-DAT definition. Spatial and temporal resolutions are 0.5 degree for the globe and one day for 1979-2011. In this study we will present that 1) whether it is possible to explain the crop diminution of FAOSTAT according to the disaster event recorded in EM-DAT, if possible, 2) whether it is able to extract from meteorological grid data of WFDEI the critical value of meteorological variables defining the agro-disaster presented in EM-DAT. |
テーマ | 講演者 | 連絡先 |
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Designing weather-index-based crop insurance schemes to aid adaptation of farmers in Indonesia to climate change and variability | Toshichika Iizumi |
伊川 hirokiikawa@affrc.go.jp |
要旨 | ||
Weather index-based insurances (WIBI) are an emerging institution to manage farmer's income risk associated with climate variability and change. WIBIs provide insurance payouts for covered farmers when a value of predefined weather index for a given area and time interval exceeds a threshold, whereas conventional crop insurances provide their payouts when observed yield loss exceeds predefined threshold. Some countries, including Indonesia, have been planning to impliment WIBI. This study aims to estimate the amount of possible payouts of WIBI in Indonesia under changing climate to inform insurers about possible trend in premium-payout ratio which indicates the robustness of insurance scheme. In Kishodanwakai, I will present the progress of this study. |
生物多様性研究領域セミナー(第2回) |
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日時: 平成27年9月17日(木曜日) 15:00~16:00 場所: 547会議室(農環研本館5階) |
テーマ | 講演者 | 連絡先 |
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ベイズ推定法の問題点および適切な活用法について | 山村光司 (農業環境技術研究所・生物多様性研究領域) |
山村 電話 838-8253 平舘 電話 838-8246 |
要旨 | ||
ベイズ推定法は2000年ごろから生態学者の間でも多用されるようになってきた。ベイズ推定のための数値アルゴリズムの発達とともにwinBUGSという優れたソフトウエアが誰でもフリーで使えるようになったことが大きく関係している。私らは非常に複雑なモデルを作成する必要に迫られることが多い。そうしたモデルのパラメーターを推定するのは大変であり,やむを得ずモデルを単純化せざるをえないこともある。しかし,winBUGS等を使えば基本的にいかなる複雑なモデルでも推定できてしまう。まさに「何でもあり」の魔法の世界である。多少のプログラミングは必要ではあるが,そこには統計学の知識はほとんど不要である。当然の流れとして多くの研究者はこれに飛びついた。ところが,そこには大きな落とし穴があったようである。 |
物質循環セミナースペシャル |
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日時: 平成27年9月30日(水曜日) 15:00~17:15 場所: 農環研 本館547号室 |
テーマ | 講演者 | 連絡先 |
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千葉県の農業と窒素について(仮題) | 永沢朋子 (千葉県農林総合研究センター) |
和穎 電話 838-8199 |
テーマ | 講演者 | 連絡先 |
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Applying isotope geochemistry to identify mechanisms regulating the aquatic-terrestrial carbon dynamics across scales in a moraine landscape | Kai Nitzsche (PhD student at the Institute for Landscape Biogeochemistry, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research) |
和穎 電話 838-8199 |
要旨 | ||
Little is known about the mechanisms of carbon and nitrogen storage and C & N spatial distribution in the terrestrial-aquatic interface. To understand more about the direct interactions and potential feedbacks of C & N exchange in these systems, we focus on mechanisms regulating the C & N dynamics in the Quillow catchment (NE Germany): a complex arable landscape interspersed by kettle holes. We investigate specific C & N dynamics at three different spatial scales: (1) C & N pools at the micro scale, (2) lateral nutrient and element transfer in the kettle holes in the aquatic-terrestrial transition zone and (3) C & N dynamics at the regional landscape scale. For this purpose, this study heavily relies on the application of stable isotope natural abundances. In (1), we separated soil and sediment organic matter fractions hypothesized to contain stabilized carbon using a physio-chemical based sequential extraction. In (2), we determined elemental and nutrient concentration gradients from the terrestrial to the aquatic realm from which we will infer terrestrial inputs into kettle holes, thus characterizing their connectivity. In (3), we created δ13C & δ15N isoscapes of soils and plants of a 40 km2 complex arable landscape. We were able to capture environmental gradients, plant-soil interactions, land-use effects and land-management practices (e.g. maize cultivation and slurry application). Finally, we use isotopic data from sediments (δ13C, δ15N) and surface water (δ18O, δD) of 51 kettle holes to explore the hydroperiod effects on the evaporative imprint and biogeochemistry of kettle holes. |
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国立研究開発法人 農業環境技術研究所 305-8604 茨城県つくば市観音台 3-1-3 |
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研究所までの交通案内 |
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広報情報室広報グループ(kouhou@niaes.affrc.go.jp) |